The likelihood that President Donald Trump could face a third impeachment before the end of 2026 has risen sharply, according to the betting exchange Polymarket. After the release of additional emails connected to Jeffrey Epstein, contracts on a Trump impeachment climbed from 5% to 15%, signaling a three-fold increase in perceived probability.
More than 20,000 pages of documents were published Wednesday by the House Oversight Committee. The files include emails in which Epstein claims Trump “knew about the girls” and reportedly asked Ghislaine Maxwell to “stop.” Epstein also referred to Trump as “that dog that hasn’t barked.”
No member of Congress has introduced impeachment articles, and senior Republicans continue to show unified support for Trump. The White House dismissed the documents as a “hoax,” with spokeswoman Abigail Jackson stating that Democrats were “desperately trying to distract from their shutdown defeat.”
Despite this, online wagering has shifted significantly. Polymarket contracts on a Trump impeachment jumped from 5 cents to 15 cents on the dollar between Wednesday and Friday.
CNN polling analyst Harry Enten described the Epstein revelations as “the president’s worst by far.” While 87% of Republicans approve of Trump’s overall performance, only 45% support his handling of Epstein-related questions, according to the network’s latest survey.
Mark Shanahan, a professor of American politics at the University of Surrey, noted that the likelihood of impeachment depends heavily on the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections. “If the GOP loses the House, Democrats will start a third impeachment; if they also lose the Senate, that process will be completed,” he told Newsweek.
Separately, a bipartisan petition to compel a floor vote on the release of all federal Epstein records surpassed the 218-signature threshold on Wednesday. The House is expected to vote on the measure in the near future.
Trump, who was impeached and acquitted twice during his first term, has denied any wrongdoing, maintaining that his acquaintance with Epstein ended in the early 2000s.
